This article does not provide answers to our current political crisis but rather seeks to provide brief analysis of some of the issues we are facing. My doors are however open to further analysis and way forward.
SCENARIO ONE
Lawyer Ousainou Darboe and co were last Thursday denied bail even though all the charges against them are bailable but one thing I want to clearly state in this analysis is that Yaya Jammeh, knowing fully well that Lawyer Ousainou Darboe is the only obstacle in the coming presidential elections, is determine to keep them in jail until after the elections which must not be allowed. In the same scenario the other opposition leaders are seeing this as a blessing in disguise for them but I can confidently state that none of them can win Jammeh through the ballot box. I don’t think the United Democratic Party loyalists will change their loyality to any of these parties when Darboe and Co have given up their lives for the Gambia. I can state that these other parties are enabling Jammeh to be in power for the rest of his life so he can declare himself king of the Islamic Republic of the Gambia.
SCENARIO TWO
Until I pen this article, change trumpeting civilians and the security forces are still not on the same page on the current happening. I feel we should talk to the security forces in a language they will easily understand that the Gambia belongs to all of us, not the ICC language and publishing their identity or threatening them with peace keeping mission bans. All the countries that had successful popular uprising never ever made such issues known to the public. If we continue to do it we will never get the uniformed men and women on our side. When one does a critical analysis of the compositions of security forces, one will find out that their level of education is low. Besides, many of them did not undergo “a professional training” that a security personnel should have gone through. Instead they have been brainwashed to obey President Jammeh. Rather than scaring higher echelons with above mentioned points, we should make them feel at home otherwise they will drag their feet. Our failure to lure them to our side means the military will prefer to have Yahya Jammeh and enjoy peacekeeping mission than support a change that will lead to their ICC indictment. They will do whatever it takes to avoid the ICC and to continue going on missions.
One of the biggest security dilemmas is that Jammeh has recruited 700 NON-GAMBIANS AS STATE GUARD OFFICERS and these are the people in charge of the armory which has paralyzed the few officers yawning for change.
SCENARIO THREE
In any popular uprising number matters a lot which is one of the challenges we are facing. The Gambia has a population of about 1.8 million people out of which about 300,000 lives in the diaspora and these are the intellectuals who really know our problems, the 1.5 million back home consist of the elderly about 3%, the children inclusive, those working for the regime most of whom will not join us in the streets- one, some of them want to secure their positions and two, some lack choice because of poverty and limited opportunities but the latter will likely join when they see more people on the ground. Another challenge in getting large crowds is low level of awareness. The Gambia is like North Korea we all know that access to information is stiff and all they see is Jammeh getting fake awards, giving the security forces OLD PAINTED BUSES, celebrations in Kanila and little do an average Gambian get the kind of information the people in the diaspora get.
SCENARIO FOUR
The online media is doing a wonderful job but knowing how much of the Gambia’s budget is being spent on security sometimes when I listen to some analysis it occurs to me if there is no protocol in journalism called censorship. We sometimes discuss all we want to do to get rid of jammeh on air while his men are taking note and strategizing how to counter our plans. I think there is need for a unified media committee to coordinate our activities. Having said that we do get information from you which is enlightening us daily. On May 3rd, I heard a shocking story on online news analysis that the government of the Gambia is planning to get poison from Russia in order to get rid of Darboe, I would like to work with Kairo Radio Panelists on that program to put this to the attention of the Russian Government if they have evidence of such transaction because I can confidently state that the Russian government is aware of our suffering and they should be able to act on this issue.
Thank you
A Concerned Gambian
Ends
An interesting analysis!!!
I am particularly interested in Scenario 1
Without doubt, Yahya Jammeh knows Ousainou Darboe is his biggest headache and that is why he has never hesitated in clamping down on the UDP at the slightest opportunity. That is a given. The bit I am most concerned about is the comportment of some of the other Opposition party leaders at this hour. Omar Amadou Jallow, in particular, has been on record saying that he would lead demonstrations in The Gambia. He never delivered on these promises. When Darboe (who, like OJ, was also not aware of the April 14 peaceful March) took to the streets on a peaceful procession demanding to have those arrested released, OJ did not join. Three weeks into the arrest of Darboe and co., OJ is yet to call “his people” out on the streets to “demonstrate” as he had promised in the past. The question that keeps lingering in my mind is this: What was OJ’s objective for making such statements in the past? Why would one make promises that one has not intention to fulfill, in the first place? Let us agree OJ was not aware as he claimed. But Darboe too was not aware, yet he came out to show his outrage at the abomination. We are all watching. This is not the time to say much, we shall return when the hurly burly is over. One thing should be clear: People will continue to put pressure on him to deliver because HE PROMISED. It is a matter of integrity. OJ should note that nobody is holding Halifa Sallah to account because Halifa never played to the gallery. Halifa never promised to lead people out on the streets. The lesson here is: Genuine politicians avoid playing to the gallery, they avoid making grandiose statements that could make their colleagues look bad before the eyes of their own supporters. Such tactics will always boomerang as is clearly the case here with OJ.
OJ was a political loud mouth who promoted his image among the diaspora . It was calculated move on his part to deceive unsuspecting Gambians about his true intention. Today he is quite and avoiding the same media he came to lie about his intention of peaceful protest .
Mr Lafia Touray , I want to say I am sorry for condemning You here when you warned us about the true intention of OJ and Fatoumata Tambanjang . You are absolutely right that OJ was after his selfish interest . It was mistake to defend such a despicable politician who lied to Gambian people for his selfish interest .
Atleast the pdois who always adivse the Dictator ( because they were inspirational to his coup ) never openly made any false promise .
Gambian people should be concerned about politicians who lied just to get support . Dictator Jammeh lied to us in 1994, we should never allowed any politician to lie without any consequences . What I heard from Neneh , OJ’s daughter , it means OJ has dishonestly and falsely informed Gambians .
Realistic analysis indeed; any one will agree with….
Indeed Lawyer Ousainou Darboe & UDP are the genuine realistic opposition “government in waiting” in (a) democratic Gambia; thence, the REAL, & perceived treat & enemies, for yaya IBLIZ-FIRR’AWNN jammeh’s & other so-called opposition leaders too, respectively….
Lawyer ousainou Darboe & others have manifested & fulfilled their entrusted incumbent responsibilities; (as) expected, required, committed & asked of them; in their noble leadership & citizenry Constitutional Responsibilities; when the “call of duty” came; calling (at) the eleventh-hour; whilst selfish politicians interested in selfish-partisan aggrandizements or nothing indulge in finger points, UDP leadership have acted & manifested real interests for democratic Gambia; as mandatory upon, required & expected upon them ALL….
Nations, countries, entities, organizations & or parties, politically & otherwise, all commits to constitutional responsibilities; as set of rules abided by; (the) head of States, in countries, for example, are the custodians of constitutional guarantees; in (a) failed states, such as Gambia currently, the political opposition leaders are the heads of State “in waiting”; who individually, & collectively, appended (their) signatures to, in agreement to defend treasonable breach of Constitutional guarantees of our basic rights & freedom to expression; & life for existence (as humans)…
I believe the buck stops with all (the) rest of them; NONE of the opposition leaders, Ousainou & our comrades inclusive, will claim they were sought after, dragged out of (their) houses; with leadership trusts, forced & imposed upon; & even where a leader is sought out, they (the person), finally accepts on own accord & eventually commits & append willingness in signatures in (by) signing; to execution of these required duties, (as) on party documents…..
These opposition leadership posts comes with incumbent committed responsibilities, challenges, expectations & sacrifices; whether one verbally & openly committed or not, all of them acknowledged, accepted & committed their willingness, when entrusted with the leadership anointments….
Wether, Lawyer Ousainou Darboe & others are kept incarcerated, or killed, the Gambia have SET OFF to the point of NO return; UNTIL total liberation of the Gambia as Constitutionally incumbent upon all Gambians; as (our) birthrights; where others could just help (us), none must be expected to do for us, but ourselves….
The selfish opposition politicians can choose to conscious, unconsciously & willingly engage in participatory aid abetting tyranny, upon us ALL, including the opposition leaders & families too…..
We ALL have parts to play individually & collectively; whilst some can choose to feed on our bloods & souls; make meals out of our collective communal predicaments; & side with the Murderous kanilai Idol Worshipper & devilling cohorts, openly, or in tale twist uncompromising inclinations, for whatsoever reasons (advanced &) be known…..