Sounds crazy? Unfortunately, the logic of the Syrian war and the involvement (and financial/political investment) of various nations point to the logical conclusion, from Russia’s point of view, of the nuclear option.
These are some of the reasons:-
- Putin and his people were shocked when 224 of their citizens were killed in that terrorist attack in Egypt. The Russians hardly got any sympathy, while a few weeks later the world mourned with France the attacks in Paris. Additionally, the Russians know that ISIS don’t have the weapons to shoot down a passenger plane at 31,000 feet. Only American weapons can do that. The suspicion remains in the mind of the Russians that the Americans or their allies had something to do with it.
- Putin has more or less accused the Americans and NATO of coordinating with Turkey the shooting down of the Russian fighter jet over Syria.
- This, Putin feels, was to protect the CiA’s supply route to the anti-Assad forces over the Turkmen Mountains Pass near the Turkish border.
- There was also the recent USA Coalition attack on Assad’s forces at Dar Azur in Syria which then result in ISIS taking over the base from Assad’s forces.
- Then there was the fact that for more than one year of bombings, the USA Coalition had no effect whatsoever on ISIS and simply strengthened the terrorists – while not hitting the ISIS-Turkey oil pipeline even once.
- The recent Turkish incursion into Iraq, with America’s seeming blessing, also angered Russia.
- The USA bombing of Iraqi soldiers two days ago adds up to Russia’s suspicion that USA, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are determined to protect Islamic State – as a bulwark against the Assad Regime in Syria and as a bulwark against the Iraqis and the Iranians in Iran.
It was in this tense situation that Russia summoned John Kerry to Moscow last week, and in a solid three-hour meeting, Putin made his position clear: If matters continue as they are in Syria then there is a serious risk of a military clash between the two world powers. Putin also made it clear that Assad is not going anywhere anytime soon. Of course, John Kerry went straight back to Washington and drafted the Syria Resolution that has been endorsed by all the 5 Permanent Members.
The UN Syria Resolution may have removed the immediate tension between Russia and USA (UK, France, Saudi, Turkey will follow USA lead); but ISIS and the Al-Qaeda terrorists will remain at war with Russia and Assad (possibly again with weapons provided SURREPTITIOUSLY by the Secret Services of Turkey and Saudi Arabia and the CiA).
Inspite of all their firepower, the Russians and the Syrian Army will continue to face protracted challenges on the battlefield from ISIS and other rebel forces. A quick victory may not be certain. Russia may lose more soldiers in battle. Then the incentive to use a nuclear bomb on ISIS will become irresistible.
Of course, the Russian High Command are chess grandmasters and they will have gone through all the scenarios but here are some of their possible thoughts:-
- A nuclear bomb on Raqqa will destroy ISIS HQ at once;
- Use of the bomb will terrify ISIS – and the terrorists will become the terrorised;
- A nuclear bomb will terrify Turkey & Saudi Arabia – Russia means business.
- America will take seriously what Russia said last year – that they have a Nuclear First-Use Policy if Russia’s National Security is threatened. And that will put an end to NATO’s sabre rattling on Russia’s borders.
- There are no risks other than sanctions – and both the USA and EU have already sanctioned Russia over Ukraine.
The Russian nuclear strike might have happened last week when it was confirmed that Iran had withdrawn ALL their forces from Syria – that seemed like Russia moving their Iranian friends out of harm’s way. A nuclear strike last week may have been prevented by John Kerry’s visit to Moscow and the three hour meeting with Putin (in normal circumstances a Foreign Secretary would not meet a President for three hours – if at all).
Today, 20th December 2015, Putin has reiterated that Russia will if necessary use “more modern weapons” in Syria. That seems to be a clear warning to the countries supporting ISIS’s terrorism that Russia will not hesitate to use a nuclear bomb to ensure the war ends on Russia’s term.
Remember, you first read it here of KairoNews!
Dida Jallow-Halake,
London, UK.
Ends